International Coffee Organization Bumps Up Its 2020/2021 Global Coffee Surplus Forecast, But Says Production Will Likely Fall Below World Demand Next Season
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) has bumped up its 2020/2021 global coffee surplus forecast in its June monthly report, but said that production will likely fall below world demand next season.
As reported by rte.ie, the ICO raised its 2020/21 surplus estimate to 2.30 million bags in June from 2.01 million bags in May, primarily as a result of a reduced consumption projection.
Consumption is reportedly now seen at 167.20 million bags this season from a previous 167.58 million bags and below the 168.5 million seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The ICO reportedly expects production from many countries, not least Brazil, to fall next season and sees consumption continuing to grow as pandemic restrictions are eased and economies recover.
The CSO reportedly did not give a figure for its projected deficit next season.
The ICO reportedly said that global coffee exports reportedly totalled 9.8 million 60kg bags in May of this year, down 10.1% year-on-year.
However, the ICO reportedly added that exports for the first eight months of the season increased to 87.3 million bags from 85.4 million a year prior.
Surge In Green Coffee Prices
Additionally, according to The Irish Times, a surge in green coffee prices may soon start increase coffee costs for consumers as coffee bean prices on international markets have surged as crops in top producer Brazil have been damaged by the worst drought in close to 100 years, causing the coffee market’s first supply shortfall in four years.
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