Small businesses in the UK hospitality sector are the most likely of any business sector to predict growth in the next three months, according to new quarterly data from Novuna Business Finance, which reveals that the percentage of small businesses in the UK hospitality sector predicting growth has increased by 41% since the last quarter, from 29% to 41%, and 45% year-on-year.
Details
This proportion was well above those seen pre-COVID-19 pandemic, when 29% of UK hospitality businesses were predicting growth in Q2 2019.
Specifically, & of businesses in the UK hospitality sector (8%) said that they anticipated significant expansion, the highest figure in three years, while 33% predicted notable organic growth.
This quarter also saw the proportion of small UK hospitality businesses anticipating either significant or modest decline almost half, falling from 29% in Q1 22 to 17% this quarter. Comparing it to levels seen pre-pandemic, the proportion was broadly the same.
|
|
Q2 19 |
Q2 21 |
Q1 22 |
Q2 22 |
|
Net growth |
29% |
28% |
29% |
41% |
|
Net decline |
16% |
30% |
29% |
17% |
Across all sectors, 37% of small UK business owners said that they predicted growth for the next three months, the highest figure since the pandemic started more than two years ago. The new quarterly data from Novuna Business Finance also revealed that the percentage of small businesses predicting contraction has also hit a two year low, falling to 7%.
Around the UK, the quarterly poll of 1,496 small business owners revealed that 5% predicted significant expansion for the three months to 30 June, with 32% predicting sustained organic growth. While 46% of respondents envisaged no change on the previous quarter, 7% of business owners predicted contraction and a further 7% feared collapse.
Small businesses that had been most affected by the pandemic were those that now see the biggest return in confidence for the future. For example:
- Small business owners that had been forced to repurpose their enterprise during lockdown are now most likely to be those on the rise, with 41% of these business owners predicting growth for the next three months, a steep rise from 27% last quarter.
- Those enterprises that had been forced to close during lockdown are also now bouncing back, with the proportion predicting growth up to 28%, rising from 20% last quarter.
- In contrast, for businesses whose operating status was not impacted by COVID-19, or who continue to work from home, for these enterprises, growth forecasts remain unchanged on the previous quarter.
Statement By Head Of Insight At Novuna Business Finance
Head of insight at Novuna Business Finance Jo Morris stated, "There is no question that many small businesses have been tangibly impacted by price rises, which directly impact the bottom line and supply chain. That said, it is important not to forget the seismic risks that enterprises had to cope with during the pandemic. Many had to close their doors, others had to fundamentally reinvent their business to survive, and we, at Novuna Business Finance helped many enterprises to adapt at this critical time. Those that experienced the most pain during lockdown are the small businesses that are forging ahead today. And it has taken six months since COVID restrictions fell away for us now to finally see the resilience of small businesses and their power to rebuild and recover."
Percentage of small business owners that predict net growth by sector:
Quarterly findings and comparisons to the start of the pandemic
|
Q2 2020 (start of pandemic) |
Q1 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
|
|
Hospitality & leisure |
16% |
29% |
41% |
|
Manufacturing |
8% |
46% |
40% |
|
IT & telecoms |
21% |
40% |
40% |
|
Finance & accounting |
11% |
35% |
39% |
|
Media & marketing |
15% |
52% |
38% |
|
Real estate |
7% |
24% |
35% |
|
Legal |
10% |
29% |
35% |
|
Transport & distribution |
10% |
27% |
31% |
|
Construction |
12% |
36% |
29% |
|
Retail |
20% |
23% |
25% |
|
Agriculture |
19% |
23% |
25% |
Percentage of small business owners that predict net growth by region:
Quarterly findings and comparisons to the start of the pandemic
|
Q2 2020 (start of pandemic) |
Q1 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
|
|
London |
19% |
46% |
49% (+3) |
|
North East |
14% |
44% |
41% (-3) |
|
East |
14% |
44% |
40% (-4) |
|
East Midlands |
14% |
30% |
40% (+10) |
|
West Midlands |
14% |
33% |
36% (+3) |
|
Yorkshire / Humber |
15% |
39% |
34% (-5) |
|
North West |
15% |
28% |
33% (+5) |
|
Wales |
3% |
27% |
33% (+6) |
|
South West |
11% |
32% |
32% (-) |
|
South East |
12% |
27% |
31% (+4) |
|
Scotland |
7% |
35% |
28% (-7) |
© 2022 Hospitality Ireland – your source for the latest industry news. Article by Dave Simpson. Click subscribe to sign up for the Hospitality Ireland print edition.
