The global coffee supply balance will shift from a deficit of 2.17 million bags in 2022/23 (October-September) to a surplus of 3.74 million bags in 2023/24 as Brazil's output partly recovers, according to a report by consultancy HedgePoint.
It projected Brazilian 2023/24 (April-March) coffee production to be between 64.9 and 68.9 million bags, compared to 59 million bags projected for 2022/23.
HedgePoint coffee analyst Natalia Gandolphi said in the report that despite a Brazilian recovery next season compared to the two previous crops, which were impacted by frosts and drought, production will still be 14% smaller than the 2020/21 record of 72.6 million bags.
Gandolphi said many coffee fields in Brazil are still recovering after pruning.
The consultancy projects Brazil's 2023/24 arabica coffee production between 44.4 and 46.4 million bags, versus 36 million bags in 2022/23.
Robusta coffee output is expected to be between 20.5 and 22.5 million bags compared to 23 million bags in 2022/23.
The report said that despite a global surplus in 2023/24, the stocks-to-use ratio will improve only slightly since global inventories are expected to remain historically low, particularly during the second quarter of next year.
Only a few estimates for Brazil's new coffee season have been released so far.
Dutch bank Rabobank expects production to grow at least 8% to 68.5 million bags, while consultancy SpillingTheBeans expects between 50 and 56 million bags.