The global coffee supply balance in the 2023/24 season is expected to be nearly balanced between production and consumption as the Brazilian crop will grow only slightly this year, a report said on Wednesday 1 February.
Dutch bank Rabobank now sees a small surplus of only 1.6 million 60-kg bags in the global 2023/24 coffee supply balance, down from a previous estimate of 4 million bags. It sees Brazil's 2023 crop at 67.1 million bags compared to 63.2 million bags in 2022.
Carlos Mera, head of research for agricultural commodities, said in the report that despite general worries about demand, that is still expected to increase, although at smaller rates. The report sees an increase of 1.6% globally, "well below the typical 2.3% annual growth rate seen in the two decades before the Covid-19 pandemic".
A separate report from the bank a day earlier confirmed a fall in sales by volumes from some of the leading coffee companies in the United States, the world's largest consumer, after sharp price increases.
Rabobank expects Colombia's production to recover from a poor 2022/23 season when the country - the second largest arabica coffee producer - harvested only 11.8 million bags. It sees Colombian coffee output at 14 million bags in 2023/24.
Vietnam's crop is expected to grow 500,000 bags to 29.5 million bags in 2023/24. The Asian country is the number one producer of robusta, the type widely used to make instant coffee.
Total Global Demand And Production
Total global demand for coffee in 2023/24 was pegged at 173.2 million bags, while production was projected at 174.8 million bags.